| Journal Volume 14, Special Issue 2, ISSN: 1823-8505 Date: November, 2020 |
| Title: PREDICTING FUTURE OF SENIOR HOUSING MARKETS AMID COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN INDIA USING DEPENDENCY MODELS |
– by Jigar V. Pandya
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to a very high percentage of senior deaths in India. Senior citizens constitute about 10% of total population while 73% of deaths during COVID-19 pandemic in India have been of people with co-morbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, heart and respiratory diseases. Amidst this pandemic, the senior housing market is poised for exponential growth despite a low market share as well as slow sales. To inquire as to which factors influence the seniors for not buying into exclusive senior housing communities and whether the decision varies among ages as well as genders; a questionnaire survey was conducted pre-COVID-19 using sales leads of 143 senior respondents from five cities; Delhi, Lavasa, Chennai, Pune and Ahmedabad. These data were tested using binary probit regression models for age and gender. The survey required the respondents to rate decision factors which included; amenities, location, social isolation, wealth, family, urban connect, new relationships, inheritance and moral values – on Likert scale of 1 to 9. The tested model for gender shows that males are dependent on factors of location of the project and fear isolation as compared to females. Males also rated new acquaintances as a discouraging factor as compared to females. The age model shows that older seniors (aged 66-75) do not wish to move to an exclusive senior citizen homes due to factors of distance, fear of social isolation and attachment to urban elements as compared to younger seniors (aged 55-65). An attempt is made to use the results arising from these models to predict the future of senior housing market post-COVID-19 pandemic in India. By integrating new factors such as social distancing, personal hygiene and recreational activities, the existing models can be used to forecast post-COVID-19 senior housing markets in India.
Keywords: Senior housing, real estate, India, COVID-19, binary probit
PREDICTING FUTURE OF SENIOR HOUSING MARKETS AMID COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN INDIA USING DEPENDENCY MODELS
| Journal Volume 14, Special Issue 2, ISSN: 1823-8505 Date: November, 2020 |
| Title: COVID-19 PANDEMIC: THE EFFECTS AND PROSPECTS IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY |
– by Mercy Ogunnusi, Mansur Hamma-adama, Huda Salman and Tahar Kouider
Abstract
COVID-19, social distancing, self-isolation, quarantine, furlough, palliatives, and many more emerged as the new vocabularies of the entire world, construction industry not excluded. It is precisely a decade from the last pandemic experienced by the human race. However, the most popular disease outbreak called Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was announced, which hit all the nations of the world within four months and was declared a pandemic in March 2020. This outbreak disrupted businesses around the globe, including built asset procurement and facility management. The United Kingdom, through the Construction Leadership Council, for instance, in responding to this unprecedented situation, published a new Site Operating Procedure (SOP). The effect of this Pandemic in these extraordinary times posed both positive and negative impacts in the Architecture, Engineering and Construction, Owner and Operator (AECOO) industry. Its effect has brought about innovative and diverse use of technology in an exemplary manner which may change the course of construction even after the extinction of coronavirus. This study explores the effects of COVID-19 on the built asset procurement and potential opportunities for the construction industry through a quantitative means. A survey was carried out on the built asset procurement professionals for the data collection. 71 questionnaires were received from Architects, Building Engineers, Civil/Structural Engineers, Electrical Engineers, Mechanical Engineers, Construction / Project Managers and Quantity Surveyors. SPSS 25 software (a social science statistical package) was used for the analysis of the data. The result reveals some challenges in the area of workflow and supply chain disruption, new policy issues, workers’ anxiety and review of COVID-19 vs Force Majeure in standard forms of the construction contract. However, opportunities evolved in the field of modern procurement planning, the necessity for virtual working and unique design considerations. This study is essential to paving the way for the development of additional contingency plans and a new working strategy in a minimised human contact situation caused by the pandemic.
Keywords: Construction industry, COVID-19, effects, impact, pandemic
COVID-19 PANDEMIC: THE EFFECTS AND PROSPECTS IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
| Journal Volume 14, Special Issue 2, ISSN: 1823-8505 Date: November, 2020 |
| Title: MEDIA ACCOUNTS OF THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE NIGERIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET |
– by Basirat Oyalowo
Abstract
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria was documented by pervasive press coverage, with daily reporting on such issues as infection rates, government expenditures on efforts to combat the disease, and non-adherence to public health measures by local celebrities. More recently, the coverage has come to include the pandemic’s effects on the economy, notably in terms of industrial performance and the implications for the livelihoods of Nigerian citizens. This paper presents an analysis of media accounts of the impact of COVID-19 on the country’s real estate industry that sheds light on the issues of concern before the pandemic, lessons about the impact of COVID-19 on the industry captured in national newspaper stories, the integration of long-standing concerns into reports on the impact of the disease, and the short-term implications for the real estate market. Specifically, within the framework of a qualitative research design, a content analysis of the coverage in three online national newspapers was conducted over the period from First February to 30th May 2020, which was segmented into consecutive pre-COVID, pre-lockdown, and lockdown periods. The analysis was performed using Atlas ti.8 software. The results indicated that the impacts of COVID-19 on the Nigerian real estate market have included increases in void rates in the upper-income residential submarket, more defaults on loans, rents, and mortgages on commercial properties, and changes in the demand for traditional office space. It was also found that the coverage of issues related to both COVID-19 and general-interest issues remained fairly constant, except that reports about COVID-19 became more frequent during the lockdown period. The projections in the coverage regarding the immediate future of the real estate sector are varied. Practitioners expected much leaner housing sales, and there were predictions of an upward trend in the co-sharing of spaces and in mortgage defaults.
Keywords: COVID-19, lockdown, newspaper research, real estate
MEDIA ACCOUNTS OF THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE NIGERIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET
| Journal Volume 14, Special Issue 2, ISSN: 1823-8505 Date: November, 2020 |
| Title: COVID-19 PANDEMIC: THE NEW NORMAL IN BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLAN FOR REAL ESTATE FIRMS IN MALAYSIA |
– by Nur Fadzlina Aini Mohmad Lehan, Khamarrul Azahari Razak and Khairul Hisyam Kamarudin
Abstract
Coronavirus (COVID-19) whipped in the new decade of 2020, throwing the healthcare industry and associated professionals into turmoil in the face of an unprecedented global crisis. The consequences of the pandemic affect almost all market sectors worldwide. The rapid spread of the pandemic put whole nations in lockdown mode to stop the contagion which at the same time affected numerous businesses including those in real estate sector. Combination of Business Continuity Plan (BCP) and Real Estate were discussed decades ago under the Business Continuity Management (BCM) canopy but the current pandemic has opened up a so called ‘new normal’ routine for these combination. Ambiguous dynamics, especially on the flattening of the pandemic curve, have disrupted companies across the globe. Linkages inherent to business environment in respect to domestic and international supply chains have created huge impact on the continuity of its operations in particular, and its contribution to the economic development at the macro level. This paper aims to provide some thoughts on how the supply chain in Business Impact Analysis (BIA) which is one of the key factors of BCP could help real estate firms in managing daily tasks during circumstances of crisis. That apart, with BIA, it would contribute to better BCP allowing for long term sustainability of the businesses. The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged researchers to think, introduce and execute vigorous approaches on business survival, to ensure the continuity of their operations. The appropriate steps in BIA will contribute to a better BCP for most real estate firms, especially in Malaysia. Hopefully, this paper can give some insights for academicians, but more importantly as well, for business operators within the real estate sector to assist in adjusting their firms in line with the ‘new normal’ brought about by COVID-19.
Keywords: Business continuity plan, business impact analysis, COVID-19, new normal, supply chain
COVID-19 PANDEMIC: THE NEW NORMAL IN BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLAN FOR REAL ESTATE FIRMS IN MALAYSIA
| Journal Volume 14, Special Issue 2, ISSN: 1823-8505 Date: November, 2020 |
| Title: URBAN INFORMALITY AND COVID-19 RESPONSES IN MASVINGO CITY, ZIMBABWE: QUESTIONING CITY INCLUSIVITY |
– by Average Chigwenya, Benviolent Chigara and Prisca Simbanegavi
Abstract
In many cities, urban informality is sidelined in the provision of services and development of the city. The outbreak of COVID-19 has called for myriad interventions to stop the spread in many cities. The big question in the city of Masvingo is how urban informality has been included in these interventions. COVID-19 has been on the increase since it was ever recorded in the city of Masvingo. As at end of August 2020, over 200 cases of COVID-19 have been recorded and pointers also show that cases are on the increase. Many people have been deprived of their livelihoods in the city due to the outbreak of COVID-19, thereby exposing people to vulnerability due to lack of livelihoods. The outbreak of COVID-19 has also resulted in closure of countless economic activities in the city, thereby depriving people from their sources of livelihoods. The most affected by the closure of economic activities are the informal traders. The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has called for copious interventions to try and stop the spread of the disease. The study examined the inclusivity of COVID-19 interventions in the city of Masvingo to see how they include other disadvantaged groups such as the urban informality. The informal sector in the city of Masvingo is not included in the city’s COVID-19 response strategies. The city is mainly focusing on the formal sector in their response strategies, thereby leaving the informal sector out and exposing them to elevated risk of contracting the COVID-19 disease. This research examined the inclusivity of the COVID-19 interventions in the city of Masvingo, with special reference to the people in the informal sector. The informal sector, even though they live in cities, they are usually regarded as people living in the urban periphery because they are not included in the city’s development agenda and service delivery system. The research applied a qualitative methodology where in-depth interviews and field observations were used to collect data. Interviews were done with city authorities and people in the informal sector. The research showed that the interventions taken to fight the outbreak of the COVID-19 have not benefited the people in the informal sector but only the formal sector. The informal sector has been sidelined, showing a clear exclusionary urban policy. Their livelihoods were destroyed in the guise of preventing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, such destructions were not done in the formal sector which again apparently shows exclusive urban policy. The research therefore calls for a more holistic approach in the fight against COVID-19 disease for the inclusive of the city and the betterment of life for all people in the city.
Keywords: Inclusive planning, urban informality, COVID-19, service delivery, Masvingo
URBAN INFORMALITY AND COVID-19 RESPONSES IN MASVINGO CITY, ZIMBABWE: QUESTIONING CITY INCLUSIVITY
| Journal Volume 14, Special Issue 2, ISSN: 1823-8505 Date: November, 2020 |
| Title: THE PHILIPPINES’ BALIK PROBINSYA, BAGONG PAG-ASA INITIATIVE AND THE REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT SECTOR DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: SOME POLICY MORALS |
– by Leonard Nevin V. Correa and Luisito C. Abueg
Abstract
The Philippine government attempts to mitigate economic setbacks of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the country has been included in the top 20 countries with highest infections worldwide and the highest in Southeast Asia, already at 300,000 level. The lockdown of 198 days as of 1 October 2020 contributed to the continued dismal performance of the Philippine economy, which is now officially in recession at -16.5% preliminary growth rate reported in the second quarter of 2020, worse than the recession during the Asian Financial Crisis. Given these adverse effects to the economy, this paper studies the role of the real estate development sector to serve as a catalyst in providing new sources of value-added to the macroeconomy under the “new normal”. Using the lens of institutional economics with tenets of economic history, this paper attempts to investigate the feasibility of reviving an old program of the Philippines to decongest city centers, particularly the National Capital Region. Under the initiative “Balik Probinsya, Bagong Pag-asa” (translation: “Return to the Provinces, with New Hope”; shorthand, BP2), the national government primarily aims to decongest the region to aid in distancing protocols warranted by the COVID-19 pandemic. While it is important for a multi-sectoral approach to this initiative, economic opportunities aligned with health protocols must be placed so as not to defeat the program objectives. We suggest ways of effective collaboration and cooperation between various real estate industry stakeholders to ensure success and sustain development through this re-lived initiative. We also cite particular cases of township models that have been implemented and are continuously developed that will emulate the multi-sectoral approach to this program. A policy framework for the real estate development sector of the Philippines is provided to highlight the importance of its role and potential contributions to this initiative.
Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, real estate development, institutional economics, rural-urban migration, reverse migration
| Journal Volume 14, Special Issue 2, ISSN: 1823-8505 Date: November, 2020 |
| Title: THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE PRICE PERFORMANCE OF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (REITs) IN MEXICO |
– by Luis Rocha Chiu, Aurora Poo Rubio, Víctor Jiménez Argüelles and Víctor Lara Poó
Abstract
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are companies that own or finance income-producing real estate in a range of property sectors. REITs were created in México in 2011, they have become instruments for small and large investors to attract funds to the stock market in order to invest in real estate, such as office buildings, shopping malls, industrial warehouses and hotels, among other properties, in order to produce rental income. In just nine years of operations, the fifteen public-listed REITs in the Mexican stock market account for more than two thousand properties, with an area of 25 million square meters and 20 thousand hotel rooms, with accumulated assets of $25 billion US dollars and account for one-fifth of GDP of the country´s real estate sector. However, the pandemic effects have affected REITs revenue, particularly properties like office buildings, shopping malls and hotels. In Mexico, the first confirmed infection case of COVID-19 occurred on 27 February 2020. The increase of infected people and the presence of the first fatalities due to the virus, forced the Mexican government to establish voluntary confinement to contain the spread of the virus on 20 March 2020. In April, the suspension of non-essential activities in the country began for a 3-month period. The Mexican economy was severely affected by confinement, activity suspensions, global economic recession, and dropping oil prices. In April and May alone, 12 million jobs were lost in the formal and informal sectors and the activities that performed the worst in this period were tourism services, that decreased in April 70.4% and in May 72.1%, construction fell 38.4% and 35.9%, manufacturing had a loss of 35.6% in both months. The retail and wholesale trade sectors, transport and recreational services fell by around 30% in all cases and foreign trade declined 35.8% in April and 52.0% in May. These measures also had an important effect on the prices of the REITs Certificates. The REITs index fell 36.7%, between 28 February and 23 March 2020, just three weeks after the first contagion was announced, while the Certificate prices of most REITs had also an unfavorable performance in the same period, with declines of between 8% and 42%. On the last day of June 2020, four REITs performed negatively with percentages greater than 30% and the REITs Index was below 19.5% compared to December 2019. Properties generating higher people concentrations (shopping malls, stadiums, theaters, concert halls and hotels) will be the most affected in this crisis and will be forced to implement innovative schemes to operate in order to generate earnings in the future. The article studies the impact of COVID-19 in the price of REITs Certificates, as the effect in the value of the REITs Index in the Mexican Stock Market. The price of the different REITs stocks and Index are compared to their price at the end of 2019 and an estimate of the future impact in the results of operations of the corresponding REITs. An analysis of the geography of COVID-19 in Mexico is performed, considering how the different sectors where the REITs properties are geographically located in order to look for a possible evidence of COVID-19 effect.
Keywords: COVID-19, Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) in Mexico, financial performance, stock market
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE PRICE PERFORMANCE OF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (REITs) IN MEXICO
| Journal Volume 14, Special Issue 2, ISSN: 1823-8505 Date: November, 2020 |
| Title: EFFECTS OF COVID-19 ON URBAN HOUSING DELIVERY AND AFFORDABILITY IN NIGERIA |
– by Godswill Unekwuojo Musa, Adekunle Sunday Adeogun and Wasiu Ayobami Durosinmi
Abstract
The world economy has been experiencing serious disruption due to the advent of COVID-19 pandemic impacting at both local and global scales. Inquiries, studies and researches are currently ongoing to analyse the impacts COVID-19 has on various sectors of the economy so as to enable stakeholders in policy making understand and come up with adequate plans to develop resilience to the pandemic and ensure sustainability of the several affected sectors in the economy. Housing is one of the fundamental needs of man and has no doubt been affected by the advent of COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the aspect of housing need, space requirement, housing security, housing affordability and security of tenure, housing/property investment and construction. This study reviews various existing studies on the current effects and potential impact of COVID-19 pandemic on different facets of urban housing, and its effects on urban housing delivery and affordability, with a view to identifying fissures or gaps as well as filling the identified gaps and create platform for further studies and contribution to knowledge and academic research. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses was adopted with a total of 140 documents retrieved and 79 eliminated using adopted criteria leaving out 61, out of which 30 not addressing subject matter in the study area were excluded from findings; thus, 33 documents including PhD dissertations, MSc. thesis, peer reviewed journal articles, books, proceedings, technical reports and other published articles directly relevant to this paper work were succinctly reviewed. Results show COVID-19 has impacted housing need, space requirement, housing security, housing affordability, real estate investment and housing development. The study also shows that residential, hospitality, retail, offices, industrial and healthcare sectors have different experiences of COVID-19 impact as some are positive like in the case of industrial and healthcare while others are negative.
Keywords: COVID-19, economic impact, Nigerian economy, pandemic, urban housing development
EFFECTS OF COVID-19 ON URBAN HOUSING DELIVERY AND AFFORDABILITY IN NIGERIA
| Journal Volume 14, Special Issue 2, ISSN: 1823-8505 Date: November, 2020 |
| Title: INFLUENCE OF THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE ON NIGERIAN REAL ESTATE SECTOR AND THE WAY FORWARD |
– by Onyinye Vivian Keke, Johnbosco Ikenna Okafor and Raphael Oshiobugie Sado
Abstract
The coronavirus disease outbreak which occurred in 2019 at Wuhan, Hubei Province in China became a pandemic in 2020 such that over 200 countries have been affected and had to lockdown on economic, social and political activities so as to maintain both social and physical distancing to curb the dispersion of the virus. Global economic growth came to an abrupt halt, as a result of the effects of the pandemic on social and economic activities – countries around the world have implemented changes to real estate policies in order to reduce the effects of the lockdown on the citizens who are tenants and in some cases, landlords. In the United States, many decisions are made at the state and local levels to prohibit eviction of tenants. Many countries are considering legislations that would protect tenants who cannot pay rent for a period of six months. Due to this global lockdown resulting from the pandemic, Nigeria is currently facing financial crisis which has directly/indirectly affected all sectors of human endeavor including the real estate sector of the economy. In all, the usual way of life and work system is changing and some of the upcoming trends will become part of the ‘new normal’ in the Nigerian real estate sector. The researchers used survey method in obtaining data by distributing questionnaires to respondents. Data collected were collated and analyzed using table, simple percentage and mean. Findings reveal that the outbreak has had an adverse effect on many tenants’ ability to pay rents and have also led to a decrease in investment yield for residential and commercial real estate as a result of the economic “lockdown” in the country. The study suggests that, although all forms of real estate investment produce viable returns, it will be a wise investment decision to capitalize on the agricultural real estate sector during this pandemic as well as the post-COVID era. It also recommends that the Nigerian government should create an enabling environment to encourage investors, by coming up with policies that will help ease the effect of the pandemic on real estate investment.
Keywords: Coronavirus, pandemic, real estate investment, impact, Nigeria
INFLUENCE OF THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE ON NIGERIAN REAL ESTATE SECTOR AND THE WAY FORWARD
| Journal Volume 14, Special Issue 2, ISSN: 1823-8505 Date: November, 2020 |
| Title: PRECAUTION AGAINST CORONAVIRUS AND HOUSING NEIGHBORHOOD STANDARD IN SELECTED AREAS OF LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA |
– by Anthonia Oluwatosin Adediran and Hishamuddin Mohd Ali
Abstract
Housing and neighborhood conditions can significantly affect health, safety, and well-being of citizens in a country. The current COVID-19 outbreak and its manner of transmission tests the potential resilience of nations, while revealing various economic, political, and health challenges – whereby housing being one and in fact the basis of them. The most well-planned and maintained housing environments in Nigeria are mostly populated by the rich, more-privileged, and less often the middle-income earners, while the lower-class groups of people reside in unkempt or sub-standard neighborhoods. The objectives of this study are to examine the neighborhood and housing standards in five selected areas of Lagos and to investigate the level of residents’ compliance with the physical/social distancing polices relating to the precautions against COVID-19 spread. Data were gathered through a mixed-method approach, alongside facility surveys and physical observations. A total of 161 copies of questionnaire were administered in the Fola-Agoro, Abule-Ijesha, Bariga, Abule-Oja, and Onike-Iwaya areas – all within the essential part of the city. 152 questionnaires were returned with 143 of them were found valid for generating the required analysis through the use of SPSS software. Features like road networks, drainage systems, infrastructural facilities, commercial properties, and various types of dwelling units exist across these areas. However, findings from the survey analysis indicated poor neighborhood and housing standards that manifested in lack of conducive neighborhood dwelling facilities/conditions like adequate space, proper ventilation, good security, serenity, efficient household services, and a well-planned environment, all affect residents’ operations in the areas. The overall inadequacy of basic amenities affected the residents’ level of adherence to the lockdown policy as the selected areas lacked appreciable neighborhood and housing standards. Hence, it is recommended that related and concerned authorities should provide the basic habitable conditions such as spacious neighborhood, good ventilation, serene environment, efficient neighborhood security and good road networks. This, presumably, will promote comfort among residents’ and enhance their ability to abide by the physical distancing policy towards the prevention of the pandemic spread and indeed any subsequent disease outbreaks capable of being doused by good neighborhood and housing standards.
Keywords: COVID-19, housing, lower class group of people, neighborhood, Nigeria